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Sports statistics, applied modeling, and research notes by Jeremie Spagnolo.
This blog serves as an outlet to explore ideas which naturally interest me. I try to keep an informal, back-of-the-napkin style to these posts, hopefully a little like Tom Tango. Posts are grouped by topic in the header, but can be accessed in chronological order below.
Featured research
- Goalie Performance — Estimating talent while respecting small-sample uncertainty. · 15 min
- NHL Pick Probability — Turning rankings into pick distributions and decisions. · 22 min
- Post-regulation — What three-on-three overtime adds to NHL standings, and what predicts the next goal.
Projects
- WTA Rankings — Weekly player strength, surface effects, uncertainty, and trajectories.
- Letterboxd Recs — Personalized, weekly fresh film recommendations built from taste similarity and streaming availability.
Recent writing
| Date | Title | Reading Time |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2023 | Goalie Performance | 14 min |
| Apr 20, 2022 | Post-regulation | 4 min |
| Nov 28, 2021 | NHL Pick Probability | 22 min |
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