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Sports statistics, applied modeling, and research notes by Jeremie Spagnolo.
This blog is an outlet for ideas which naturally interest me. I keep the posts informal and back-of-the-napkin, in the spirit of Tom Tango. They are grouped by topic in the header and appear chronologically below.
Research
- Pick Probability — Building a probability-based drafting strategy from public draft rankings. · 22 min
- Goalie Performance — Estimating NHL goalie performance with empirical Bayes. · 15 min
Notes
- Post-regulation — What three-on-three overtime adds to NHL standings, and what predicts the next goal.
- Goalie Consistency — Whether a steadier goalie helps a team win more games.
Projects
- WTA Rankings — WTA player ratings derived from betting markets, updated weekly. · Notes on the model
- Letterboxd Recs — Film recommendations using taste similarity to a curated user group, updated weekly.
- Extracting Structured Data from Tennis Broadcasts — Processing broadcast video to generate frame, event, and point-level data.
Recent writing
| Date | Title | Reading Time |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | WTA Rankings | 10 min |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Extracting Structured Data from Tennis Broadcasts | 7 min |
| Jun 28, 2023 | NHL Pick Probability | 15 min |
| May 17, 2023 | Goalie Performance | 14 min |
| Apr 20, 2022 | Post-regulation | 6 min |
| Mar 28, 2022 | Goalie Consistency | 5 min |
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