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Sports statistics, applied modeling, and research notes by Jeremie Spagnolo.
This blog is an outlet for ideas which naturally interest me. I keep the posts informal and back-of-the-napkin, in the spirit of Tom Tango. They are grouped by topic in the header and appear chronologically below.
Featured research
- Goalie Performance — Estimating talent while respecting small-sample uncertainty. · 15 min
- NHL Pick Probability — Turning rankings into pick distributions and decisions. · 22 min
Projects
- WTA Rankings — WTA player ratings derived from betting markets, updated weekly. · Notes on the model
- Letterboxd Recs — Film recommendations using taste similarity to a curated user group, updated weekly.
Recent writing
| Date | Title | Reading Time |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2023 | Goalie Performance | 14 min |
| Apr 20, 2022 | Post-regulation | 4 min |
| Nov 28, 2021 | NHL Pick Probability | 22 min |
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