[Post 3] Goalie Consistency: The inter-shot effect on expected standing points

To measure the effect of inter-shot consistency on expected standing points, we simulate 10,000 goalie seasons, all with seasonal save percentages of .900, by sampling seasonal shot outcomes without replacement into a sequence (or, a season). Then, we calculate the entropy of each simulation, along with the expected standing points earned. The results are below.

Inter-shot consistency does not seem have an effect on expected standing points.

The next post will use entropy as a measure for goalie consistency on real data. It will be a similar exploration to this one on shooters, except it will be expanded to include weights on shots in the form of MoneyPuck’s Expected Goals.